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​The subject of future improvements in mortality is complex and not fully understood.  This project seeks to isolate and address a particular sub-issue which is designed to produce "building blocks" which help to both tackle the wider difficulties whilst simultaneously having their own self contained uses.

The aims of this research project are to:

  • Introduce the concept of Longevity Catalysts;

  • Identify “past catalysts” that have already occurred, but are not necessarily observable in mortality statistics based on current data;

  • Identify potential “future catalysts” that could have a material impact on future death / survival rates;

  • Provide a framework for better anticipation of potential longevity outcomes by monitoring key indicators

  • Extend these catalysts into a series of non-subjective ‘triggers’ that could be used in insurance contracts and / or as part of a risk management framework;

The objective of this work is to develop a framework for the robust specification of Longevity Catalysts.

At this stage, we do not anticipate attaching likelihoods to the occurrence of future catalysts. We list possible uses but do not intend to prescribe how such catalysts ought to be used by financial professionals.

It is envisaged that other uses will naturally evolve through the ingenuity of end users. The remit here is to simply provide the necessary building blocks.

Supplementary more general aims include: 

  • To promote greater interest and understanding into the drivers underlying future mortality improvements whilst acknowledging that this cannot represent the whole picture.  Also see Philosophy.

  • To fulfill primary aims in an open and collaborative way seeking communal input and feedback in order to  help facilitate wider accessibility of non-traditional approached to all practitioners 



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